Economists predict a great recession
Duties imposed on 185 countries by the president of the USADonald Trump have caused a turmoil around the world. As he points out in his analysis the CNN“It has just taken the greatest political risk with the US economy by any president in modern history of the country.”
In his analysis, Stephen Colson notes that US presidents usually “try to do everything they can to avoid disturbing the country’s economic machine and world stability – especially if unemployment is low and growth is running, as happened when he took over.”
So contrary to this practice, the Trump He managed to shock the whole planet by going against the tips of almost every economist, as well as the lessons that have emerged in some of the most gloomy moments in history.
Trump made this move by relying on his belief in a mystical force that you will be able to stimulate domestic production.
For the US president, as the ERTAccording to CNN’s analysis, “it does not matter that trade wars tend to have a bad end and that duties are more characteristic of the 19th century than the 21st”.
Stephen Colson comments in a caustic manner even the way Trump chose to make the announcements, referring to a “surrealist appearance” from the White House garden.
“People have seen an unstoppable president at the only focus of publicity she loves, risking the economic fortunes of billions of people with a strange political bet,” he notes.
“The biggest political surprise is that Trump – in the name of rejuvenating the economic perspectives of post -industrial areas that have been destroyed by losing jobs and factories abroad – is going to cause real pain to Americans,” he adds.
“He was elected five months ago because voters were frustrated by the high prices of food and housing after the extermination inflation caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, and after Biden’s government spending contributed to the economy. Democratic Kamala Harris candidate had few good answers when asked how to reduce prices. But Trump promoted the solidarity of workers by working in potatoes at a McDonalds store in Pennsylvania, “he notes.
However, as Trump’s policy points out, it will result in “almost everything people buy – from fast food to electronics, cars to new houses – more expensive. The poorer people will be more affected by Trump’s wealthy friends, as well as those living with fixed incomes. “
Indicative of Trump’s intentions, however, is what he said on the NBC network over the weekend that “he could not care less” if the cost of buying cars is launched.
“His new experiment with duties suggests that he means it. This is a stunning part of a political position for a billionaire president who is leading a cabinet from other billionaires and millionaires, “CNN’s analysis said.
“No one can predict how Trump’s political game will evolve”
Worst of all, however, “no one can predict exactly how this game will evolve” and “assuming that the whole range of duties will be implemented and that there will be no last -minute exceptions – a possibility that Trump’s previous upheavals can not be ignored – the world is ready for a commercial war.”
Of course, duties will also have retaliation even from traditional US -friendly friendly countries as foreign leaders “will be under intense pressure to counterattack in the US for a 10% universal duty on almost all nations, plus much higher rates for the nations that they said are the worst.”
Indicative is a warning by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, one of the most faithful US allies. “This is not the act of a friend,” he said.
“Foreign retaliation could create a escalation staircase and make Trump – who always wants to have the last word – to feel that he has no choice but to answer,” Colosson still writes.
Concerning some of the duties, he says Trump “did not explain why it is reasonable for the world’s strongest economy to launch a trade war with tiny, problematic nations such as Cambodia with 49% duties or because it is a good idea to make life even more difficult for its developing countries. And is he really going to fight financial battles with penguins? The list of White House duties includes the tiny islands of Herd and McDonald in Antarctica, which are affected by a 10% duty – despite being more than just a shelter for seabirds. “
He also notes that “another major political danger from his new approach – which eliminates the global free trade system that the United States has spent decades to build – is that Trump is unlikely to have a short -term political reward from his bet”.
“Many analysts believe it is a fantasy that manufacturers will decide to build new supply factories and supply chains in the US, as Trump promises. But even if they did, the chances of this happen during his term – or even in the third term he wants despite the constitutional bans – are very small. Although duties will raise hundreds of billions of dollars for the US Treasury, it is not clear whether voters will believe that everyone will be compensated for the highest prices – a substantive new tax – in the bill to reduce taxes. And everything shows that the measure, if passed, will favor the very rich proportionally, “he added.
Economists predict a great recession
Colisson is brazening the proclamation of Trump’s “day of liberation” and as he says “for weeks, it has launched threats to duties and then implies that it will retreat. Its supporters in the Capitol expressed the well -known tropari that his bullshit represented the masterful movements on a chess player and an invincible negotiator. But unless there is a reversal that will turn into a large political retreat, given his choreography for a “historic” turning point for America, Trump is not expected to retreat this time. “
“This will be a great time. I think you will remember today’s day, “Trump told members of the cabinet and the leaders of Congress. “It will be a day that I hope you look back in the years to come and say, ‘You know, he was right. She turned out to be one of the most important days in the history of our country.'”
As the analysis states, “Trump’s sense of creating a turning point is rather correct: some economists predict that the return to the kind of commercial barriers that caused the great recession of the 1930s and will again lead to recession.”
“However, Trump has an army of loyal voters who share his hatred for experts and economists of the establishment. His argument that people always steal America has helped him to win two elections. As he put it on Wednesday: “For decades, our country was looted, looted, raped and looted by states near and away, both by friends and enemies.” ” They were anxiously watching foreign leaders steal our jobs, foreign scammers to plunder our factories and foreign collectors to break up our once beautiful American dream. “
“Trump’s two terms prove that the benefits of globalization are not universally shared. Many of the oscillating states won by Trump in 2016 and in 2024 are marked by industrial decline. The voters there remember the promises made by the previous presidents and believe they were lied to, “the analysis said.
“If Trump opposes economic orthodoxy and returns prosperity to degraded areas, his beliefs will be validated and his legacy will reflect his boldness,” Colosson noted, stressing that the Senator Tommy Toumi “They believe him and is trying to do something different. We have to have a different play plan,” he adds.
Open to the Democrats if things get twists
“One reason why the US sometimes had smaller duties than their opponents is the power of the American consumer, the wealth of their economy, and the logic that a free trade system in which the United States is the dominant power makes the country even stronger,” Colosson said: adding:
“Now it will become much more difficult for Americans to afford new cars, flat -screen TVs and even filling the trolleys for their grocery shopping every week. If prices rise and inflation is fired, consumers could be withdrawn, causing a slowdown in recession – and the president would have given the Democrats a political gift. Plans from the Rhodes Garden will frame thousands of pre -election ads in the 2026 interim elections and in the 2028 elections. “
Concerning the elections: “Trump’s commercial” day of liberation “comes at a time when the upheaval of the last two months can disappoint voters from Republicans. In one of the first political tests of Trump’s second term, a liberal candidate easily won a critical election in Wisconsin who ruled the political fate of the State Supreme Court. The Democratic Party that finds it difficult to find an effective message against Trump could hardly be missing after the spectacular party’s spectacular party. “
“Some Republicans may agree. Four of their own to the Senate attempted to send a warning to the president on Wednesday night, voting with the Democrats a purely symbolic measure aimed at blocking duties in Canada. But either the country is heading towards a financial cliff or to the new golden age it promises, its party – and every other American – supports it, ”Colson concludes.
